New Brunswick's economy sits at an inflection point.

The pressures feel familiar. Labour is tight. Costs are real. Global uncertainty keeps shifting the ground under our feet. But there is also momentum in places we do not always stop to measure clearly.

That is the paradox of the moment. We are moving forward and falling behind at the same time. Growth exists but remains fragile. Investment flows but pools in predictable places. Talent arrives but struggles to stay rooted.

So how do we make sense of where we stand?

That is why the New Brunswick Business Council has launched an annual Economic Dashboard. Not to issue grades or dwell on rankings. But to track direction across the three pillars that determine long-term prosperity: Growth, Competitiveness, and Talent. When these three move in sync, economies advance. When one falters, the others feel it. This year's 2025 dashboard tells a story that is neither crisis nor triumph. It is a story of unfinished momentum.

The economic indicators point to a set of New Year’s resolutions for the province that will help keep our economy moving forward, creating better opportunities for citizens and providing the revenue government needs to deliver quality public services people expect and deserve.

Growth

Growth is about scale. It reflects whether the private sector is expanding, whether firms are reaching new markets, and whether investment is keeping pace with ambition.

Private sector growth in New Brunswick is positive but restrained.

Resolution #1: Lean into Sectors Where we are Already Winning.

The trade picture showed improvement in 2024, but by relying more on imports than exports for decades, we have slowed growth and weakened resilience.

The recent improvement shows that when New Brunswick leans into sectors where it already has a competitive edge, momentum follows. The task now is not to chase every opportunity, but to deliberately scale the industries that can consistently win in external markets and narrow the trade gap through strength, not retreat

Resolution #2: Create the Next Winners.

Expansion is happening, yet it is being carried out only within a narrow set of industries. Several export-facing sectors continue to grow yet others that once anchored the economy are lagging.

To accelerate private-sector growth, New Brunswick must also turn its energy toward
revitalizing lagging sectors like mining and energy.

Resolution #3: Sell More Kinds of Products to More Parts of the World.

The recent rebound in exports shows what is possible when conditions align. But a decade of flat performance and heavy reliance on a single, now uncertain, market leave growth exposed to forces beyond our control.

Sustained export success will come from broadening what we sell, expanding where we sell it, and strengthening the competitiveness that allows New Brunswick firms to hold their ground in diverse and volatile markets.

Resolution #4: Back Sectors That Can Move the Needle.

Capital investment has recovered from earlier lows, but momentum has stalled because too little new investment is flowing into both high potential and historically underperforming sectors.

Sustained growth will require attracting capital to industries that can change the economic trajectory, not relying solely on legacy strengths or incremental gains.

Competitiveness

Competitiveness asks harder questions: Are businesses becoming more productive? Are they innovating? Are they positioned to win in demanding markets?

Labour productivity is trending in the wrong direction. Output per hour in New Brunswick has slipped while national peers have held or gained ground. This matters more than almost any other measure because productivity determines wages, margins, and long-term resilience.

Resolution #5: Produce More Value. 

Productivity remains consistently below national levels. When businesses cannot increase output per hour, they are forced to compete on cost, speed, or quality alone.

Closing the productivity gap requires sustained investment and faster adoption of technology so firms can produce more value with the same effort and build a stronger foundation for wages, investment, and long-term growth.

Resolution #6: Turn Ideas Into Advantages Faster.

New Brunswick’s innovation ecosystem is moving forward, but too slowly to close the competitiveness gap. Small gains in R&D have not translated into sustained momentum or stronger productivity.

Without a step change in investment in research, applied innovation, and commercialization, the province risks falling further behind jurisdictions that treat innovation as a core economic function rather than a side activity.

Talent

Talent determines whether growth plans can be executed and whether productivity gains are possible.

Labour pressure cannot be solved by a single lever. It requires expanding the workforce through immigration and higher participation, rebuilding the talent pipeline through post-secondary enrolment and reskilling, and easing demand pressure by raising productivity. Addressing these levers is the only way to relieve structural labour constraints and unlock sustainable growth.

Resolution #7: Rebuild the Talent Pipeline Before It Runs Dry.

Post secondary enrolment is trending downward while workforce exits accelerate. That imbalance weakens the future labour supply and increases reliance on fewer sources of talent.

Rebuilding enrolment across universities and colleges is essential to ensure new entrants can keep pace with retirements and sustain the workforce needed for long term growth.

Resolution #8: Plan for Immigration.

Immigration is no longer a supplement to the labour force. It is the engine of workforce growth. As retirements outpace new domestic entrants, long term economic capacity depends on attracting, integrating, and retaining newcomers.

Managing the labour force well requires deliberate alignment with labour needs and a recognition that workforce growth is now closely tied to immigration policy and global mobility.

Why It Matters

Economic growth matters to all of us as the health of our economy is key to the vitality of our communities and our quality of life. A growing economy generates the tax base that funds the health care, education, and infrastructure people rely on every day. Roads. Bridges. Schools. Hospitals.

When growth stalls, public choices become harder and trade-offs sharper.

The New Brunswick Business Council will publish this Economic Dashboard every year. Not to dwell on rankings. Not to fixate on single indicators. But to track direction, spark better conversations, and ground policy and business decisions in a shared understanding of where we are headed.